A madição do petróleo

Matéria publicada no The New York Times (The Perils of Petrocracy - 4 de novembro de 2007) me foi mostrada por uma amiga que pesquisava para um trabalho acadêmico. Em suma, a matéria tratava sobre a maldição que paira sobre as nações produtoras de petróleo que, no mais das vezes, não conseguem reverter a bênção da riqueza natural abundante em desenvolvimento e democracia. O tema foi abordado profundamente por Terry Lynn Karl, um professor de Stanford, no chamado "paradoxo da abundância".
Porém o que mais chamou minha atenção ao ler a matéria é a quantidade de informações relevantes sobre o "desgoverno" Chávez e seu plano de socialização da Venezuela. Selecionei alguns trechos que achei mais relevantes, que seguem abaixo:

"Chávez travels a lot. Foreign presidents who receive him may enjoy receiving his customary gift — a replica of the sword of Bolívar. But they probably appreciate even more the oil that sometimes comes with it. Chávez provides discounted or free oil to Central American and Caribbean countries, sending nearly 100,000 barrels a day to Cuba in exchange for doctors and Cuban expertise on state security. He has given millions in non-oil aid to various Latin American countries, much of it in the form of energy projects. Citgo says it gave $80 million in heating oil to poor residents of the South Bronx last winter. "

"Some of Venezuela’s electric plants used to burn natural gas, but gas production has dropped, creating shortages that oil is filling. Domestic consumption of oil has reached at least 650,000 barrels a day, according to Venezuelan economists. Venezuela is importing oil products and may soon have to import gasoline. There is also the problem of contraband: subsidized gasoline smuggled out and sold at world-market prices in Colombia and the Caribbean. Between its domestic consumption and its use of oil to make friends overseas, Venezuela gives away or subsidizes a third of its production. Most of the rest is sold in the United States."

"The money that Pdvsa does get from selling at market prices goes to finance Chávez’s revolution at home. Last year, Pdvsa’s payments to the state totaled more than $35 billion, counting taxes, royalties and direct support for social programs. This is 35 percent of the company’s gross earnings."

"Almost $14 billion is spent at the sole discretion of Chávez. It is called social-development money, although it appears that there is little “social” in some of its spending. Much of the money goes to the Fund for National Development, or Fonden, an off-budget fund controlled by Chávez, which also takes foreign reserves from the Central Bank. Fonden’s Web site in July listed 130 projects — infrastructure, foreign aid, some social projects like health clinics — as well as the purchase of helicopters, submarine technology, assault rifles and plants to build other munitions. The list was taken off the Web site shortly after it drew notice in the press and was replaced by a list containing no arms purchases. What Fonden actually buys, for how much, from whom and through what process is a mystery."

"In June, Pdvsa took back operating and maintenance contracts for its working rigs from the contractors who held them. Ramírez, the oil minister, said that contractors were “cannibals” who were robbing the country, and that Pdvsa could do the work for a third of the price. But it’s not clear that Pdvsa can do the work at all."

"Pdvsa’s administrative troubles can be traced back to one of the biggest threats to Chávez’s presidency. In December 2002, Pdvsa’s managers, fed up with Chávez’s attempts to control them, locked out the workers and shut down Venezuela’s oil production for two months. The goal was either to take back control of Pdvsa or to topple Chávez. The economy collapsed, but ultimately Chávez triumphed over the “oil sabotage,” as his government called it, cementing his hold on power."

"In the aftermath of the strike, Chávez fired 18,000 of Pdvsa’s 46,000 workers — the vast majority of them were managers and professionals, many of whom have since gone to work in Calgary, Houston or Riyadh. Pdvsa has since replaced the strikers, though the new hires are largely inexperienced. In fact, Pdvsa now employs 75,000 workers, many more than in the past, and Chávez says he wants to increase the number to 102,000 next year. "

"The company’s workers must all have at least one qualification: they must be Chavistas. Ramírez told oil workers, in a speech that was taped clandestinely and passed to a TV station, that they should back the president or give their jobs to a Bolivarian. The company is “red, red from top to bottom,” he said. Pdvsa also wrote a letter to its contractors, warning them not to hire any of the 18,000 fired workers."

"As Pdvsa has been molded to Chávez’s will, it has also become less and less transparent in its dealings. The company used to publish a standard annual report, but after 2004 it stopped filing its annual reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. In recent years it has released only a page or two of basic figures, with no breakdowns or auditors’ notes. When Pdvsa does release information, some of it is of questionable credibility. Even the most fundamental operational fact — how much oil Venezuela produces — is subject to debate. In 1997, Venezuela produced 3.3 million barrels per day of crude oil. Today, Pdvsa claims the country produces the same amount, but independent sources, including OPEC, say that figure is too high; OPEC puts Venezuela’s production at 2.4 million barrels a day last year."

"Pdvsa is also taking on debt. The company had very little debt until 2006, but this year it has borrowed $12.5 billion. While raising cash through debt offerings can be fiscally sound, and many companies do so, critics contend that Pdvsa is issuing bonds for the wrong reasons. “Their debts are low, but they didn’t have any before,” says José Guerra, formerly chief of the research department of the Central Bank, who left in disagreement about Chávez’s economic policies. “Other oil countries are getting rid of debt. And what is the debt going for? Their spending on exploration is almost nothing. They are taking on debt to have a party.”

"Spending oil money on schooling and doctors for the poor seems, intuitively, like the right thing to do... ...Chávez cares about reaching zero misery, something that can be said of few governments with oil. But no one really knows if the missions are actually moving Venezuela toward zero misery; the programs have no visible internal evaluation. Increasingly, the missions are replacing their formal counterparts. It is wonderful for poor neighborhoods to have health clinics staffed with Cuban doctors — wonderful, unless you happen to need the services of one of Venezuela’s hospitals, which are falling apart. Political and ideological training, Ribas officials told me, is the top qualification for a facilitator."

"Whatever success the missions have at helping the poor may be dwarfed by the grotesque distortions in the economy as a whole. Inflation is officially at 16 percent but is most likely higher, according to Orlando Ochoa, the economist, who is usually critical of Chávez. He says that in the basket of goods and services used to measure inflation, just under half the items are sold at government-controlled prices. Many goods simply can’t be bought at those prices, and consumers must pay double the price in a street market. Or the goods can’t be found at all, their producers forced out of business by price controls. Beans and sugar were hard to find cheaply when I visited Caracas in September; fresh milk and eggs hard to find at all. Recently, people had to line up for five hours to get a liter of milk. One proposal in Chávez’s constitutional referendum could increase inflation much further by abolishing the autonomy of the Central Bank and giving the president power over Venezuela’s international reserves. The proposal would also essentially allow Chávez to print money."